Into the twenty-first century and the era of Information Technology, ‘rainfed agriculture’, ‘inadequate irrigation', should have been anachronisms, words from a bygone age with meanings slipping out of memory. But they are not. Not for India. Not for so many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

And the situation is going to get worse, not better. Because these are globalization, liberalization times. Times when the governments are to be out of welfare activities. Where droughts and floods mean better chances for imperialists to export to you. Where governments are not even responsible for adequate infrastructure development, nor for provision of drinking water.

India 2002 – reeling under drought. We have yet to settle squabbles about degrees, by deciding what percentage of crop loss is there in how many acres (50% of crop has to be destroyed for drought declaration). Anyway there is a total loss of any sense of shame. As drought relief of crores is announced by the Central Govt. states are clamouring for that status to acquire a share of the 'benefits'. But it is already official that at least 12 states are under siege. Central Govt. officials fervently mouth that the monsoons ‘ma…ay’ pick up even now. On the other hand, Union Agriculture Minister has admitted that 320 of the 524 districts of India are drought hit. Figures vary, but there is an agreement that 25% to 50% of Kharif crop has been lost – it is either destroyed or will not be sown. There is now bustle and talk about providing alternate seeds of short cycle crops if the rains come. As yet they have not.

So drought now stalks Uttar Pradesh (especially Western UP and Bundelkhand), Punjab – despite the irrigation facilities of Green Revolution, parts of Haryana, and Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, parts of Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and even Maharashtra. Govts. of Delhi and Andhra Pradesh have also declared their states drought hit after massive drought aid was announced.

26 districts in UP have been declared drought hit, though the Agriculture Minister of India brings 64 districts in its purview. In over 15 districts, over 50% of the crop is damaged. In Maharashtra, 40 lakh acres of land have been designated threatened. Karnataka has declared 150 talluks as affected. The whole state of Orissa is rainfall deficient, though 18 of 30 districts are feared to have faced severe drought. Of the 45 districts of Madhya Pradesh, only 7 are not rain-deficient. 35% of Kharif crop have already been sown – this will be totally lost. In Rajasthan, for some areas it is the fourth consecutive year of drought. Half of 32 districts are scarcity hit, 80% of villages face crop damages of over 50%.

Loss of Kharif crop means paddy, coarse cereals like jawar and bajra (these can not even be imported and are the staple diet of some parts of India!), soyabean, pulses and edible oils have been hit. Coarse cereals are grown in the largely non-irrigated areas of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, UP and Haryana. Even if it rains now, these crops will have to be replaced by pulses or rapeseeds. Paddy crops lost could be replaced by mustard crop. The list of states makes clear that agriculturally prosperous North-Western India too stands gripped. There is loss of acreage of about a lakh hectares in paddy. This is mostly in UP, but marginally in Punjab and Haryana too. Cotton crop in Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan has been hit. Groundnut, sesamum and pulses – sowing of all these stands affected. Bajra sowing is down by 24 lakh hectares, jawar by 12 lakh hectares, and maize by 13.6 lakh hectares.

One failed monsoon in twelve years. We can put missiles into space but we can not even anticipate it. The spectre of crop failure, hunger, thirst, indebtedness looms over the country despite glib promises and assurances from the governments. Meanwhile, 5 lakh are homeless in Assam and Bihar due to floods; in Rajastahn, Kota faces floods in the general milieu of drought. We cannot even harness excess water from one part of the state to another. Orissa has seen a cyclone, floods and now a drought in successive years. So it will be. Because people and their welfare are unimportant to the ruling dispensation. That's how it has been since the past 55 years of 'self rule'. More so now with globalization.

At least the IT and electronic media boom may ensure that the tragedy of drought is well delineated- its contours will take on human faces. Most of the affected states lack crop insurance schemes- including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. Given the role and performance of banks in our rural sector, it is clear that usury will flourish and indebtedness will run high. The vast masses of agricultural labourers/landless peasants and poor peasants will get no work. City migrations, with subsequent fall in wages will reign. The Central Govt. is desperately repeating that there are 60 million tonnes of reserve food in the godowns and 58 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves. What use are these when the distribution system is bound to fail to deliver, to be bottlenecked with corruption, inefficiency and hoarding? It will suffice to recollect post-cyclone Orissa, where all the much-touted food reserves of the Centre did not ensure food to the starving. In 2000, 142/424 meteorological districts got deficient rain, but due to ‘administrative problems’ even in these, there was no food in the remote areas.

65% of agricultural land in India is rain-fed. Crop insurance schemes apart, minor irrigation works could have avoided disaster – had they been executed. Only about a third of the land is irrigated. Irrigation projects inaugurated in the First Five Year Plan are still lingering into the Tenth Plan. Govts. are anyway now withdrawing posthaste from necessary welfare tasks under WTO, but even before the 1990s what was done to irrigate this agricultural country? In Punjab, one of the effects of ‘Green Revolution’ was to provide markets for booster pump and fertilizer manufacturers – the result is drying up of ground water due to injudicious and unscientific use. Canals and storage reservoirs linked to major rivers have long been known to be the answer for India's minimum needs. Had there not been decades of neglect, today drought could not be on the agenda. The current flurry of meetings, assurances, demands- all these are the ways the ruling classes distract from the basic issue of 55 years of criminal neglect.

Almost 1197.76 crores have been released under Calamity Relief Fund for the drought stricken areas. In addition Rs. 538 crores have been released under Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme. A Sampurna Gramin Rojgar Yojna- the new face for "Food for Work"- has also been launched. It is tempting to reiterate how much more useful this money would have been if used earlier for water management. Now of course, there is little chance of any benefit from it percolating down to those who need it.

Drought will bring a delayed impact on the economy. Much of whatever GDP growth there was in the last two years was due to the boost of over 6% growth in agriculture. When peasants have money, they can go to the market. Now the lower demands from the farmers will break the back of suppliers and producers of industrial goods next year. Land alienation is likely to be high, as MNCs will move to buy up cheap land which will inevitably be sold by the starving peasantry. Governments have made no curbs on MNCs' holdings – rather ceiling laws stand mostly reversed.

The story will not end with the Kharif crop. Due to lack of rains, the lower levels of ground water and low moisture in the soil will affect sowing of the Rabi (wheat) crop in end October. Fall in ground water tables across the country is likely to take on fearful proportions. This is specially true of northwest India where the water table has sunk markedly over the years. And all over the country looms the threat of thirst – no doubt to be balanced by Pepsi, mineral water and foreign alcohol sold freely. There is inadequate water level in the reservoirs – of the 70 major reservoirs in the country, excepting Bhakhra Nangal, in the rest water levels average 66% capacity. This is around 48% that of last year and around 55% of last ten years average. Rains in Maharashtra have filled 28% storage in the 930 small and medium tanks across Maharashtra. UP faces drinking water crisis in 56 districts already. Delhi also lives on the threshold of water crisis. Crisis of drinking water is always a crisis for the women of the households who will have to traverse longer distances to carry water. The situation of dalit families in drought hit villages will be worst, as even their sources of water are earmarked and relief distribution in villages is not known to transgress set boundaries to reach the more needy. Water shortage will tell on cattle too. Already reports pour in from Rajasthan of cattle dying due to lack of both water and fodder.

Superstitions rule the roost due to people’s unalievated backwardness in a country whose vast scientific manpower is an onlooker for want of political will. A hopeless people fall back on rituals. In UP, tiny children of 6 years and 7 years are sitting on ‘meditations’ to bring rain. An odd one among them are sure fire ‘meditations’- they have brought rain earlier. In Bandoli (Haryana) 14 year old Brijbala prays for rain. She has done it four times earlier. In Bhopal huge congregations of Muslims held mass prayers. In UP, Lucknow, Farrukhabad and Kanpur have seen huge ‘yajnas’ sponsored and presided over by the politicians of ruling class parties. So too in Rajasthan. Probably the most tragic ritual is that being observed in desperate UP. In Etawah, Hardoi and Aligarh (where 6 mm rain had occurred till the date when last year it was 325 mm) men and women till the fields naked at night; women in Aligarh plough fields naked at night. In these terrible times probably the rain gods are supposed to be forced to action by this breaching of social barricades. Who will fight these superstitions? Men and women of science are alienated onlookers. These rituals dissipate the ire of the people in expressions of helplessness before gods rather than allow them to evolve as volcanos against the rulers. However, the very recourse to these methods also shows the total lack of faith of people in the platitudes and assurances being uttered by the rulers.

The monsoon season is not yet over. Already the prices of vegetables are rising. Industry spokesmen are ascribing rise in inflation figures to drought. Thus the burden of price-rise will be added to the woes of the people. 

To cap it all, in a gesture exposing the situation for what it is, the Agriculturist Award this year has been given to a man who has patiently moved across the country collecting couplets on “age old techniques regarding good harvests.”  This is the priority, that too in a drought year! In Delhi the elite throng a Fashion Week, which grabs media headlines even as the country wallows in thirst. All this well helps imperialism and India’s comprador rulers who never want the people of our country to emerge from the morass of backwardness and superstitions. If they do, no doubt they will question and will refuse to bear this loot and exploitation.