Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir are being portrayed as a ‘victory’ of democracy over militancy and a proof of Kashmiris’ will to live in India. The elections were conducted under the guard of 400 companies of paramilitary forces and over 6 lakh troops stationed in Kashmir, that too in several phases to enable massing of security forces in the areas going for elections. And yet the elections in Kashmir were not radically different from the ones held earlier. A number of observers have held that elections were not free.

It has been the pattern of elections in J&K, particularly in Kashmir valley, that security forces coerce the people into voting through a number of mechanisms. As elections, whatever their result, cannot free the people from the acts of security forces, these intimidatory tactics succeed to a large extent, only they render these exercises bereft of any legitimacy in the eyes of the people.

As is usual in elections in Kashmir, the voting percentages were repeatedly revised ultimately to rest on a ‘respectable’ 44%. However a number of reports made it clear that there was a widespread boycott of elections in the Valley. But it goes to the ingenuinity of the Indian election machinery that votes are cast in good number even if there are no electorates. A report wondered as to how over two hundred people could have cast their votes when they could not see any voter in the vicinity of the booth. As far as Jammu is concerned, voting has always been high there and this time too.

This time round, elections were held in the background of “war against global terrorism” being conducted by US imperialists in the subcontinent. This war takes into its fold all liberation struggles, rather these are its primary targets. Indian rulers have, since the beginning of this war, been trying to crush the struggle of Kashmiris for self-determination in the name of combating ‘terrorism’. Pakistan is under the scanner of western imperialist powers as they target Islamic fundamentalists in this war. US establishment has been sending equivocal signals on Kashmir issue to keep both govts. of India and Pakistan on tenter-hooks on Kashmir issue and trying to carve out a role for itself in this longstanding dispute between these two neighbours. The rulers of both these countries are so subservient to imperialism that they rush to Washington with their report cards but donot wish to talk to each other on the issue. Hurriyat Conference too was subdued in their propagation of boycott this time round.

Just before holding these elections, Central Govt. had blessed the Kashmir Committee led by Ram Jethmalani which had conducted discussions with All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC). This committee recommended postponement of elections so as to create conditions for participation of APHC in the elections. But the Indian Govt. did not want to lose time in holding these elections and J&K Govt. of National Conference wanted to anyway pre-empt any progress in that talks. The Govt. arrested many important leaders of APHC before elections on frivolous charges and the process of elections was gone through. Suggestions of involving independent observers were brushed aside by the Election Commission saying that it was quite competent to conduct them ignoring the fact that elections in Kashmir and Northeast particularly Nagaland have been blindspots with successive incumbents of Election Commission.

In the elections, the corrupt and incompetent National Conference was defeated. In Jammu region it was swept away while in Kashmir valley PDP of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed made significant dent securing 16 seats. A number of independents too won in the Valley. In Jammu Congress won and BJP was wiped out securing only one seat. RSS supported Jammu State Morcha too was routed.

With regard to the impressive show by PDP it should be borne in mind that M.M. Sayeed fought these elections on the plank similar to that of APHC i.e. vacating the state repression in Kashmir and unconditional talk with ‘militants’ and ultimately with govt. of Pakistan. To some extent PDP got the votes of anti-NC voters in the valley on this plank. PDP is coming forward to replace NC as the bet for Indian rulers and is pushing for some changes in the attitude towards the struggle of the people of Kashmir. National Conference has lost its credibility among the people of Kashmir for its unashamed tutelage of Central Govts. In fact the major questions of administration are decided upon by the Central Govt. and the state govt. has hardly any power over the Army which is stationed even in the interior areas. The fate of PDP will be no better as Indian govt. is unlikely to make basic changes in its attitude towards Kashmir problem and the people there are unlikely to be wooed by cosmetic changes.

The verdict in Jammu is significant because the people of Jammu have rejected the stand of RSS for division of J&K on communal lines.  For some time RSS has been propagating trifurcation of J&K and had floated Jammu State Morcha. BJP leading the ruling alliance at the Centre could not openly support RSS stand but viewed it positively. The drubbing received by RSS floated front showed that people of Jammu are against communal division of J&K. This is the positive side of the outcome of these elections.

The struggle of the people of Jammu & Kashmir continues. The Govt. is branding attacks on the security forces in Kashmir as ‘desperate attacks’ of militants after the successful elections in J&K. In fact the attacks and counterattacks are continuing and terming them desperate attacks does not change the situation one bit. With time, the Govt. will revert to old propaganda, from ‘desperate’ attacks to ‘deliberate’ attacks.

Elections of the kind organized recently will not be able to contribute towards solution of the problem. Indian ruling classes are well aware what would be the outcome of the elections in case really free and fair elections are held with the promise of the right to elected representatives to take decision with regard to the destiny of the Kashmiri people. That is why they keep the election process firmly in their control.

Govt. should neither delude itself nor the people that it can solve Kashmir problem by staging such elections. There is always the danger of propagandists being carried away by their own propaganda. But the harsh reality is bound to assert itself.  Govt. should open dialogue with all organizations, representatives of all sections of people of Jammu & Kashmir. Only a subastantial and meaningful dialogue involving govts. of India and Pakistan and representatives of the people of J&K with a clear understanding that the Kashmir issue will be solved on the basis of wishes of the people of Kashmir, can contribute to solving this longstanding problem.  Indian Govt. is firmly set against this course and hence these elections will not basically alter the situation.