The most important aspect of the results of elections to Lok Sabha held in April-June 2024 is that the drive of Modi led RSS-BJP to impose fascist system in the country has lost steam. In fact that was the most important issue in these elections for which progressive, democratic and revolutionary forces including our Party had called for defeat of RSS-BJP in these elections.

While RSS-BJP had claimed it would secure two third majority for itself (370 seats) and over 400 seats for NDA, these claims have fallen flat. BJP has failed to secure even a simple majority, getting 240 seats, losing 63 seats from their tally in the last elections in 2019. They are now dependent on their allies to even form the Govt. NDA led by them has barely secured a simple majority. Not only have their seats declined, but even their vote share has declined from the past election. The aura of invincibility for Parliamentary elections built by corporate media around persona of Modi has been shattered.

Modi and other BJP leaders are boasting of emerging as the largest party, but it should be seen in the backdrop of massive use of power of Money and Media in influencing elections, blatant use of Central Govt. agencies like ED, IT and CBI including arrest of incumbent Chief Ministers just prior to elections, partisan attitude of Election Commission etc. Despite these, fascist forces have suffered a setback.

Not only RSS-BJP will be dependent on their NDA allies for forming and running the Govt. some of their major allies like TDP and JD (U), opportunists though they are, do not come from Hindutva cabal nor share the Hindutva agenda. The territory is in fact one which RSS-BJP are not used to since 2014.

A very important feature of these elections is that the issues of agrarian distress, unemployment and price-rise affecting vast sections of the people have made their way into political discourse. RSS-BJP have not been able to sidetrack the livelihood issues by their diversionary dangerous tactics. Increasing difficulties of the people and rising economic burden on them have made themselves felt. In bringing this into sharp focus, over one and a half year long agitation of farmers including a year-long sit-in at Delhi borders under the leadership of SKM had played an important role. Near complete washout of BJP from the areas where this agitation had been strong like Punjab, rural areas of Haryana, West UP and parts of Rajasthan bears testimony to this. Overall, RSS-BJP have fared relatively poorly in rural areas. This has highlighted the role played by people’s struggles in stopping the fascist juggernaut of RSS-BJP. While issues of the people have been common throughout the country, RSS-BJP has suffered where struggles or campaigns had been built on these issues.

While BJP leaders beginning from Modi tried to deepen communal polarization, they did not succeed as their communal drive was not cloaked in nationalist narrative. Modi himself stooped to very low levels during campaign for these elections. Their hype on inauguration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya was a non-starter as election issue. They themselves abandoned it later in the campaign and were defeated in Faizabad. Modi’s own vote share in Varanasi also declined.

Election results also highlight importance of federalism for a diverse country like India. RSS-BJP had launched concentrated attacks on rights of states in pursuit of their fascist designs which have been rebuffed by people in a number of states. Attacks on federal structure have been part of the attacks on the democratic rights of the people in general.

Regional parties of the ruling classes which have been friendly with RSS-BJP at the Centre and have suppressed people’s struggles in their state e.g. YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and BJD in Odisha have suffered heavily. BJP turned its back on them, striking alliance with TDP in AP and attacking BJD in Odisha.

While RSS-BJP have laid great stress at dominating eastern part of India, these have failed. In four tribal states of Northeast e.g. Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya, their NDA allies have lost. In Manipur their cynical pursuit of unleashing violence between communities has been rejected. Their attempts to communally polarize people of West Bengal by notifying CAA Rules just before elections have been rejected by the people despite people’s anger against the party ruling in the state for its repression on people’s movements.

RSS-BJP and media allied to them have made much of the RSS-BJP performance in South India. They could win a seat in Kerala because alliance between Congress and CPM at all India level opened space for BJP posing as opposition. Their much hyped Tamilnadu campaign fell flat while they conceded ground in Karnataka despite alliance with JD(S). In Telengana they could improve their tally due to some realignment with opposition forces in the state. In Maharashtra, despite their attempts to break the parties, their own strength declined.

While RSS BJP retained their dominance over parts of North West India especially Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, their dominance over large northern belt of Hindi speaking states was dented heavily. The most devastating was their loss in the most populous province of Uttar Pradesh. While impact of farmers movement contributed, bulldozer raj of Yogi Adityanath evoked revulsion as people’s problems e.g. rising unemployment, price rise etc. mounted. BJP-RSS drive to secure two third majority of their own was seen as a part of their drive to change Constitution including doing away with reservations. Loss in UP has been very important in denying BJP a majority in Lok Sabha. Bihar, which had some of these factors and more fertile ground for rejection of RSS-BJP and NDA, did not do so as opposition parties shunned all agitations and were content with their caste calculations. In Jharkhand, reaction to RSS-BJP was significant in tribal areas.

Punjab has denied entry to BJP despite several prominent leaders from Congress joining them. AAP, which had emerged due to people’s disillusionment with two major parties, Congress and Akali Dal, has betrayed the aspirations of the people, suppressing even anti-BJP campaign by different organizations. This has allowed rise of Khalistani forces, with them winning two Lok Sabha seats. An important aspect of this is BJP’s tacit support to these forces with a cynical aim of damaging rising people’s struggles in that state.

Modi and RSS-BJP boast of success of their virtual abrogation of Article 370 and annulment of Article 35A in relation to J&K, they did not dare to contest election in the Valley. Rejection of the move has been sharp and even leaders like Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti have lost and Sheikh Abdul Rashid who has been in jail since 2019 has been elected. In Laddakh an independent candidate won and BJP was third.

While all ruling class parties – in NDA and I.N.D.I.A. bloc – subscribe to same basic policies the difference is of the RSS-BJP drive to impose fascism. Setback to their drive will create better conditions for rise of people’s struggles of all classes and sections of people- struggle of farmers for MSP, struggle of tribals for saving their land and of landless and poor to secure land, struggle of workers for wages, rights and against labour codes, struggles of students and youth against commercialization of education and for employment, and myriad other issues of the people.

While struggle for democratic rights will continue to face obstruction from RSS-BJP led NDA Govt., conditions for waging struggle for democratic rights will be better. While attacks on minorities, especially Muslims, will continue under RSS-BJP led Govt. it can be exposed, opposed and resisted more widely and effectively. Importantly it will invigorate those sections of people who had suffered from defeatism seeing rise and rise of RSS-BJP. The lid has been lifted. Rise in struggles alone will prevent the fascist force from regaining lost ground.

Basic problems of the people can only be solved by bringing about basic changes, revolutionary transformation of India. Conditions for intensifying class struggle and people’s movements have improved in the backdrop of deepening economic crisis in the country and rising disillusionment of the people with the system which could be seen in declining polling percentages. Elections have also brought to fore the continuing role of Money, Muscle and Media in influencing elections as well as anti-democratic aspects of electoral exercise in the country. Despite these, fascist forces have suffered a setback.

Central Committee
CPI (ML)-New Democracy

June 4, 2024